How the economic machine works, in 30 minutes. The economy works like a simple machine. But many people don't understand it — or they don't agree on how it works — and this has led to a lot of needless economic suffering. I feel a deep sense of responsibility to share my simple but practical economic template. Though it's unconventional, it has helped me to anticipate and sidestep the global financial crisis, and has worked well for me for over 30 years. 经济机器是怎样运行的（时长：30分钟）。经济就像一部简单的机器那样运行，但很多人不懂得这一点，或是对经济的运行方式持有不同观点，于是导致很多不必要的经济损失。我深感有责任与大家分享我的简单但是实用的经济分析模式。这个模式虽然不符合常规传统经济学，但是已经帮助我预测和躲避了全球金融危机，30多年来对我一直很有用。
Let's begin. 我们开始吧！
Though the economy might seem complex, it works in a simple, mechanical way. It's made up of a few simple parts and a lot of simple transactions that are repeated over and over again a zillion times. These transactions are above all else driven by human nature, and they create 3 main forces that drive the economy. 经济虽然可能看起来复杂，但是其实是以简单和机械的方式运行。经济由几个简单的零部件和无数次重复的简单交易组成。这些交易首先是由人的天性所驱动，因而形成三股主要的经济动力。
Number 1: Productivity growth Number 2: The Short term debt cycle and Number 3: The Long term debt cycle We'll look at these three forces and how laying them on top of each other creates a good template for tracking economic movements and figuring out what's happening now. 一、生产率的提高，二、短期债务周期，三、长期债务周期，下面我们谈一下这三股动力，并介绍如何把它们组合在一起，得出一个良好的模型，便于我们跟踪经济走势，并理解当前正在发生的事情。
Let's start with the simplest part of the economy: Transactions. An economy is simply the sum of the transactions that make it up and a transaction is a very simple thing. You make transactions all the time. Every time you buy something you create a transaction. Each transaction consists of a buyer exchanging money or credit with a seller for goods, services or financial assets. Credit spends just like money, so adding together the money spent and the amount of credit spent, you can know the total spending. 我们先来说经济中最简单的部分：交易。经济不过是无数交易的总和，而交易是一件非常简单的事情。交易时刻都在发生，你每次买东西都是进行一笔交易。在每次交易中，买方使用货币或信用，向卖方交换商品、服务或金融资产。信用在使用时和货币一样，因此，把花费的货币和信用加在一起，就可以得出支出总额。
The total amount of spending drives the economy. If you divide the amount spent by the quantity sold, you get the price. 支出总额是经济的驱动力，如果用支出金额除以销量，就得出价格。
And that's it. That's a transaction. It is the building block of the economic machine. All cycles and all forces in an economy are driven by transactions. So, if we can understand transactions, we can understand the whole economy. 就是这么简单，这就是交易。交易是经济机器最基本零件，所有经济周期和动力都是交易造成的。所以，理解了交易，就理解了整个经济。
A market consists of all the buyers and all the sellers making transactions for the same thing. For example, there is a wheat market, a car market, a stock market and markets for millions of things. An economy consists of all of the transactions in all of its markets. If you add up the total spending and the total quantity sold in all of the markets, you have everything you need to know to understand the economy. It's just that simple. 一个市场由买卖同一种商品的所有买方和卖方组成。例如，有小麦市场，汽车市场、股票市场和千百万种其他市场。经济就是由所有市场内的全部交易构成。把全部市场的总支出和销量加在一起，就得到了了解经济运行所需要的全部信息，就这么简单。
People, businesses, banks and governments all engage in transactions the way I just described: exchanging money and credit for goods, services and financial assets. 个人、企业、银行和政府都在以上述方式从事交易：用货币和信用，交换商品、服务和金融资产。
The biggest buyer and seller is the government, which consists of two important parts: a Central Government that collects taxes and spends money... ...and a Central Bank, which is different from other buyers and sellers because it controls the amount of money and credit in the economy. It does this by influencing interest rates and printing new money. For these reasons, as we'll see, the Central Bank is an important player in the flow of Credit. 政府是最大的买方和卖方，而政府有两个组成部分：即收税和花钱的中央政府和中央银行。央行控制着经济中的货币和信贷数量，因此不同于其他买方和卖方。央行通过影响利率和发行更多货币来实行这种控制。我们在下面会看到，正因如此，央行在信贷流通当中发挥着重要作用。
I want you to pay attention to credit. Credit is the most important part of the economy, and probably the least understood. It is the most important part because it is the biggest and most volatile part. Just like buyers and sellers go to the market to make transactions, so do lenders and borrowers. Lenders usually want to make their money into more money and borrowers usually want to buy something they can't afford, like a house or car or they want to invest in something like starting a business. 请诸位注意信贷，信贷是经济中最重要的组成部分，但也许是人们最不了解的部分。它之所以最重要，是因为它是经济中最大且最为变幻莫测的一部分。贷款人和借款人与在市场中进行交易的买方和卖方没有两样。通常，贷款人希望自己的钱生出更多的钱，而借款人则想购买当前无法负担的某种东西，例如房子、汽车，或是进行投资，例如开办企业。
Credit can help both lenders and borrowers get what they want. Borrowers promise to repay the amount they borrow, called the principal, plus an additional amount, called interest. When interest rates are high, there is less borrowing because it's expensive. When interest rates are low, borrowing increases because it's cheaper. When borrowers promise to repay and lenders believe them, credit is created. Any two people can agree to create credit out of thin air! That seems simple enough but credit is tricky because it has different names. 借贷可以同时满足贷款人和借款人的需要。借款人保证偿还借款，称为本金，并支付额外的款额，称为利息。利率高时，借贷就会减少，原因是贷款变得昂贵，当利率低时，借贷就会增加，原因是贷款变得便宜。如果借款人保证偿还债务，而且贷款人相信这一承诺，信贷就产生了。任何两个人都可以通过协定凭空创造出信贷！信贷看似简单，实则复杂，因为信贷还有其他名称。
As soon as credit is created, it immediately turns into debt. 信贷一旦产生，立即成为债务。
Debt is both an asset to the lender, and a liability to the borrower. In the future, when the borrower repays the loan, plus interest, the asset and liability disappear and the transaction is settled. So, why is credit so important? Because when a borrower receives credit, he is able to increase his spending. And remember, spending drives the economy. This is because one person's spending is another person's income. Think about it, every dollar you spend, someone else earns. and every dollar you earn, someone else has spent. 债务是贷款人的资产，是借款人的负债，等到借款人今后偿还了贷款并支付了利息，这些资产和负债将消失。交易得以完成，那么为什么信贷如此重要？这是因为，借款人一旦获得信贷，便可以增加自己的支出。不要忘记支出是经济的驱动力，这是因为一个人的支出是另一个人的收入。想想看，你每花一块钱，另一个人挣了一块钱，而你每挣一块钱，必定有别人花了一块钱。
So when you spend more, someone else earns more. When someone's income rises it makes lenders more willing to lend him money because now he's more worthy of credit. A creditworthy borrower has two things: the ability to repay and collateral. Having a lot of income in relation to his debt gives him the ability to repay. In the event that he can't repay, he has valuable assets to use as collateral that can be sold. This makes lenders feel comfortable lending him money. So increased income allows increased borrowing which allows increased spending. 所以，你花得越多，别人挣得就越多。如果某人的收入增加，其信用度就会提高，贷款人就更愿意把钱借给他。信用良好的借款人具备两个条件：偿还能力和抵押物。收入债务比率高，借款人就具备偿还能力。如果无法偿还，借款人还可以用有价值、可以出售的资产作为抵押物。这样，贷款人可以放心地把钱借给他们，所以，收入增加使得借贷也增加，从而能够增加支出。
And since one person's spending is another person's income, this leads to more increased borrowing and so on. This self-reinforcing pattern leads to economic growth and is why we have Cycles. 由于一个人的支出是另一个人的收入，这将导致借贷进一步增加，并不断循环。这一自我驱动的模式导致经济增长，也正是因为如此，才产生了经济周期。
In a transaction, you have to give something in order to get something and how much you get depends on how much you produce over time we learned and that accumulated knowledge raises are living standards we call this productivity growth those who were invented and hard-working raise their productivity and their living standards faster than those who are complacent and lazy, but that isn't necessarily true over the short run. Productivity matters most in the long run, but credit matters most in the short run. 在一项交易中为了获得某样东西你必须付出另一样东西，长期来看，你得到多少取决于你生产多少，我们的知识随时间而逐渐增多，知识的积累会提高我们的生活水平，我们将此称为生产率的提高，一个善于创新和勤奋的人，将比那些自满和懒惰的人更快的提高生产率和生活水平，但在短期内不一定体现出来。生产率在长期内最关键，但信贷在短期内最重要。
This is because productivity growth doesn't fluctuate much, so it's not a big driver of economic swings. Debt is — because it allows us to consume more than we produce when we acquire it and it forces us to consume less than we produce when we pay it back. Debt swings occur in two big cycles. One takes about 5 to 8 years and the other takes about 75 to 100 years. While most people feel the swings, they typically don't see them as cycles because they see them too up close -- day by day, week by week. 这是因为生产率的提高不会剧烈波动，因此不是经济起伏的一个重要动力。但是债务是这种动力，因为我们能够通过借债让消费超过产出，但是在还债时不得不让消费低于产出。债务量的波动有两大周期，其中一个周期持续大约5年至8年，另一个持续大约75年至100年。大部分人虽然能感受到波动，但由于离波动太近，每天、每周都身临其境，通常并不认为这是周期。
In this chapter we are going to step back and look at these three big forces and how they interact to make up our experiences. As mentioned, swings around the line are not due to how much innovation or hard work there is, they're primarily due to how much credit there is. 我们将在本章考察这三股主要动力，并观察它们如何相互作用以及它们在日常经济中的表现。如上所述，经济的上下起伏不是取决于人们多么善于创新或勤奋工作，而是主要看信贷的总量。
Let's for a second imagine an economy without credit. In this economy, the only way I can increase my spending is to increase my income, which requires me to be more productive and do more work. Increased productivity is the only way for growth. Since my spending is another person's income, the economy grows every time I or anyone else is more productive. If we follow the transactions and play this out, we see a progression like the productivity growth line. 我们先想象一个没有信贷的经济运行。在这样的经济运行中，增加支出的唯一办法是增加收入，因此需要提高生产率和工作量。提高生产率是经济增长的唯一途径，由于我的支出是另一个人的收入。当我或者另一个人提高生产率的时候，经济就会增长。我们如果观察各种交易，加以总结，就会发现一条类似于生产率增长轨迹的渐进线。
But because we borrow, we have cycles. This isn't due to any laws or regulation, it's due to human nature and the way that credit works. 但是，由于我们借债，于是产生了周期，原因并不是任何法规，而是人的天性和信贷的运作方式。
Think of borrowing as simply a way of pulling spending forward. In order to buy something you can't afford, you need to spend more than you make. To do this, you essentially need to borrow from your future self. In doing so you create a time in the future that you need to spend less than you make in order to pay it back. It very quickly resembles a cycle. Basically, anytime you borrow you create a cycle.? This is as true for an individual as it is for the economy. 借债不过是提前消费，为了购买现在买不起的东西，你的支出必然超过收入。因此你需要借钱，实质上是向未来的自己借钱。你给自己设定了一个未来的时间，到那个时候，你的支出必须少于收入，以便偿还债务。这样马上就形成了一个周期。通常一旦你借钱，就制造了一个周期，对于个人是这样，对于整个经济运行也是这样。
This is why understanding credit is so important because it sets into motion a mechanical, predictable series of events that will happen in the future. This makes credit different from money. Money is what you settle transactions with. When you buy a beer from a bartender with cash, the transaction is settled immediately. But when you buy a beer with credit, it's like starting a bar tab. You're saying you promise to pay in the future. Together you and the bartender create an asset and a liability. You just created credit. Out of thin air. 这就是为什么必须理解信贷，因为信贷触发了一系列机械和可以预料的、将在未来发生的事件。这就是信贷不同于货币的地方，完成交易需要使用货币。当你在酒吧用现金买一瓶啤酒时，交易立即完成。但是如果你用信用来买一瓶啤酒，比如赊账，你相当于承诺今后为这瓶啤酒付钱。你和酒吧一起创造了一笔资产和一笔负债。你们凭空制造出了信贷。
It's not until you pay the bar tab later that the asset and liability disappear, the debt goes away and the transaction is settled. 只有在你今后清偿了这笔赊账之后，上述资产和负债才会消失，债务才会还清，交易才会了结。
The reality is that most of what people call money is actually credit. The total amount of credit in the United States is about $50 trillion and the total amount of money is only about $3 trillion. Remember, in an economy without credit: the only way to increase your spending is to produce more. But in an economy with credit, you can also increase your spending by borrowing. As a result, an economy with credit has more spending and allows incomes to rise faster than productivity over the short run, but not over the long run. 现实生活中，大部分所谓的钱实际上是信贷，美国国内的信贷总额大约为50万亿美元，而货币总额只有大约3万亿美元。不要忘记，在没有信贷的经济运行中，增加支出的唯一办法是增加生产。但是在有信贷的经济运行中，还可以通过借债来增加支出。因此有信贷的经济运行能增加支出，使得收入的增长速度在短期内超过生产率的增长，但在长期内并非如此。
Now, don't get me wrong, credit isn't necessarily something bad that just causes cycles. It's bad when it finances over-consumption that can't be paid back. However, it's good when it efficiently allocates resources and produces income so you can pay back the debt. For example, if you borrow money to buy a big TV, it doesn't generate income for you to pay back the debt. But, if you borrow money to buy a tractor — and that tractor let's you harvest more crops and earn more money — then, you can pay back your debt and improve your living standards. 但是，请不要误解我的意思，信贷不一定是坏事，只是会导致周期性变化。信贷如果造成超过偿还能力的过度消费，就是不良信贷。但是信贷如果高效率地分配资源和产生收入，让你能偿还债务，就是良性信贷。例如，如果你借钱买一台大彩电，电视机不会带来任何收入让你偿还债务。但是，你如果借钱买一台拖拉机，用它来收获更多的庄稼，赚更多的钱，你就能够偿还债务，提高生活水平。
In an economy with credit, we can follow the transactions and see how credit creates growth. 在有信贷的经济运行中，我们可以跟踪各种交易，观察信贷如何带来经济增长。
Let me give you an example: Suppose you earn $100,000 a year and have no debt. You are creditworthy enough to borrow $10,000 dollars - say on a credit card - so you can spend $110,000 dollars even though you only earn $100,000 dollars. Since your spending is another person's income, someone is earning $110,000 dollars. The person earning $110,000 dollars with no debt can borrow $11,000 dollars, so he can spend $121,000 dollars even though he has only earned $110,000 dollars. 我举一个例子：假设你每年挣10万美元，没有任何债务。你有不错的信用，可以借1万美元，例如用信用卡借，因此，你每年可以花11万美元，即使你的收入只有10万美元。由于你的支出是别人的收入，另一个人因此挣了11万美元，这个挣了11万美元的人如果没有任何债务，可以借1.1万美元，他可以消费12.1万美元，即使他的年收入只有11万美元。
His spending is another person's income and by following the transactions we can begin to see how this process works in a self-reinforcing pattern. 由于他的支出是另一个人的收入，而我们通过跟踪各种交易，可以看到这个过程不断自我强化。
But remember, borrowing creates cycles and if the cycle goes up, it eventually needs to come down. This leads us into the Short Term Debt Cycle. 但不要忘记，借债形成周期，周期会上升，最终也会下降，下面我们谈谈短期债务周期。
As economic activity increases, we see an expansion - the first phase of the short term debt cycle. Spending continues to increase and prices start to rise. This happens because the increase in spending is fueled by credit - which can be created instantly out of thin air. When the amount of spending and incomes grow faster than the production of goods: prices rise. When prices rise, we call this inflation. The Central Bank doesn't want too much inflation because it causes problems. Seeing prices rise, it raises interest rates. 随着经济活动的增加，出现了扩张，这是短期债务周期的第一阶段。支出继续增加，价格开始上涨，原因是，导致支出增加的是信贷，而信贷可以即刻凭空产生。如果支出和收入的增长速度超过所出售的商品的生产速度，价格就会上涨。我们把价格的上涨称为通货膨胀。央行不希望通货膨胀过高，因为这会导致许多问题。央行在看到价格上涨时就会提高利率。
With higher interest rates, fewer people can afford to borrow money. And the cost of existing debts rises. Think about this as the monthly payments on your credit card going up. Because people borrow less and have higher debt repayments, they have less money leftover to spend, so spending slows ...and since one person's spending is another person's income, incomes drop...and so on and so forth. When people spend less, prices go down. We call this deflation. Economic activity decreases and we have a recession. 随着利率的上升，有能力借钱的人会减少，同时现有债务成本也会上升。就等于你每个月的信用卡还款额会增加。由于人们减少借债，还款额度增长，剩下来用于支出的资金将减少，因此支出速度放慢，而由于一个人的支出是另一个人的收入，环环相扣，人们的收入将下降。由于支出减少，价格将下跌，我们称之为通货紧缩。经济活动减少，经济便进入衰退。
If the recession becomes too severe and inflation is no longer a problem, the central bank will lower interest rates to cause everything to pick up again. With low interest rates, debt repayments are reduced and borrowing and spending pick up and we see another expansion. As you can see, the economy works like a machine. 如果衰退过于严重，而且通货膨胀不再成为问题，央行将降低利率，使经济活动重新加速。随着利率降低，偿债成本下降，借债和支出增加，出现另一次经济扩张。可见，经济像一部机器一样运行。
In the short term debt cycle, spending is constrained only by the willingness of lenders and borrowers to provide and receive credit. When credit is easily available, there's an economic expansion. When credit isn't easily available, there's a recession. And note that this cycle is controlled primarily by the central bank. The short term debt cycle typically lasts 5 - 8 years and happens over and over again for decades. But notice that the bottom and top of each cycle finish with more growth than the previous cycle and with more debt. 在短期债务周期中，限制支出的唯一因素，是贷款人和借款人的贷款和借款意愿。如果信贷易于获得，经济就会扩张。如果信贷不易获得，经济就会衰退。请注意，这个周期主要由央行控制。短期债务周期通常持续5至8年，在几十年里不断重复。但是，请注意在每个周期的低谷和高峰后，经济增长和债务都超过前一个周期。
Why? Because people push it — they have an inclination to borrow and spend more instead of paying back debt. It's human nature. Because of this, over long periods of time, debts rise faster than incomes creating the Long Term Debt Cycle. 为什么会这样？这是人促成的，人具有借更多钱和花更多钱的倾向，而不喜欢偿还债务。这是人的天性。因此，在长期内，债务增加的速度超过收入，从而形成长期债务周期。
Despite people becoming more indebted, lenders even more freely extend credit. Why? Because everybody thinks things are going great! People are just focusing on what's been happening lately. And what has been happening lately? Incomes have been rising! Asset values are going up! The stock market roars! It's a boom! It pays to buy goods, services, and financial assets with borrowed money! When people do a lot of that, we call it a bubble. So even though debts have been growing, incomes have been growing nearly as fast to offset them. 尽管人们的债务增加，但贷款人会提供更宽松的信贷条件，这是为什么？这是因为，大家都以为形势一片大好！人们仅注意最近出现的情况。最近的情况是什么？收入一直在增加！资产价值不断上升！股票市场欣欣向荣！现在是繁荣时期！用借来的钱购买商品、服务和金融资产很划算！当人们过度借贷消费时，泡沫便产生了，因此，尽管债务一直增加，但收入也以相近的速度增加，从而抵消了债务。
Let's call the ratio of debt-to-income the debt burden. So long as incomes continue to rise, the debt burden stays manageable. At the same time asset values soar. People borrow huge amounts of money to buy assets as investments causing their prices to rise even higher. People feel wealthy. So even with the accumulation of lots of debt, rising incomes and asset values help borrowers remain creditworthy for a long time. But this obviously can not continue forever. And it doesn't. 我们把债务与收入比率称为债务负担，只要收入继续上升，债务负担就可以承受。与此同时，资产价值迅猛上升，人们大量借钱来购买资产，因为投资促使资产价格日益升高。人们感觉得自己很富有，因此，尽管积累了大量债务，收入和资产价值的上升，帮助借款人在长期内保持良好的信用度。但是这种情况显然无法永久持续下去，也确实没有持续下去。
Over decades, debt burdens slowly increase creating larger and larger debt repayments. At some point, debt repayments start growing faster than incomes forcing people to cut back on their spending. And since one person's spending is another person's income, incomes begin to go down... ...which makes people less creditworthy causing borrowing to go down. Debt repayments continue to rise which makes spending drop even further... ...and the cycle reverses itself. This is the long term debt peak. Debt burdens have simply become too big. 几十年来，债务负担缓慢增加，使偿债成本越来越高。到了一定的时候，偿债成本的增加速度超过收入，迫使人们削减支出。由于一个人的支出是另一个人的收入，收入开始下降。人们的信用因此降低，致使借贷减少。偿债成本继续增加，使得支出进一步减少，周期开始逆转。这时到达长期债务的顶峰，债务负担变得过重。
For the United States, Europe and much of the rest of the world this happened in 2008. It happened for the same reason it happened in Japan in 1989 and in the United States back in 1929. Now the economy begins Deleveraging. In a deleveraging; people cut spending, incomes fall, credit disappears, assets prices drop, banks get squeezed, the stock market crashes, social tensions rise and the whole thing starts to feed on itself the other way. 美国、欧洲和世界上很多其他地区在2008年发生了这一情况，日本在1989年和美国在1929年因同样原因发生了这一情况。现在，经济进入去杠杆化时期。在去杠杆化过程中，人们削减支出，收入下降，信贷消失，资产价格下跌，银行发生挤兑，股票市场暴跌，社会紧张加剧。
As incomes fall and debt repayments rise, borrowers get squeezed. No longer creditworthy, credit dries up and borrowers can no longer borrow enough money to make their debt repayments. Scrambling to fill this hole, borrowers are forced to sell assets. The rush to sell assets floods the market This is when the stock market collapses, the real estate market tanks and banks get into trouble. As asset prices drop, the value of the collateral borrowers can put up drops. This makes borrowers even less creditworthy. 整个过程开始下滑并形成恶性循环，随着收入下降和偿债成本增加，借款人倍感拮据，随着信用消失，信贷枯竭，借款人再也无法借到足够的钱来偿还债务。借款人竭力填补这个窟窿，不得不出售资产。在支出下降的同时，出售热潮使市场充斥待售资产，这时，股票市场暴跌，不动产市场一蹶不振，银行陷入困境。随着资产价格下跌，借款人能够提供的抵押物的价值下降，这进一步降低了借款人的信用。
People feel poor. Credit rapidly disappears. Less spending › less income › less wealth › less credit › less borrowing and so on. It's a vicious cycle. 人们觉得自己很穷，信贷迅速消失，支出减少、收入减少、财富减少、信贷减少、借债等等随之减少，这是一个恶性循环。
This appears similar to a recession but the difference here is that interest rates can't be lowered to save the day. In a recession, lowering interest rates works to stimulate the borrowing. However, in a deleveraging, lowering interest rates doesn't work because interest rates are already low and soon hit 0% - so the stimulation ends. Interest rates in the United States hit 0% during the deleveraging of the 1930s and again in 2008. 它看起来与衰退相似，但不同之处是，无法通过降低利率来挽回局面。在衰退中，可以通过降低利率来刺激借贷。但是，在去杠杆化过程中，由于利率已经很低，接近0，从而丧失刺激功能，因此降低利率不起作用。美国国内的利率在1930年代的去杠杆化期间下降到0，在2008年也是如此。
The difference between a recession and a deleveraging is that in a deleveraging borrowers' debt burdens have simply gotten too big and can't be relieved by lowering interest rates. 衰退与去杠杆化之间的差别在于，在去杠杆化过程中，借款人的债务负担变得过重。
Lenders realize that debts have become too large to ever be fully paid back. Borrowers have lost their ability to repay and their collateral has lost value. They feel crippled by the debt - they don't even want more! Lenders stop lending. Borrowers stop borrowing. Think of the economy as being not-creditworthy, just like an individual. So what do you do about a deleveraging? 无法通过降低利率来减轻，贷款人意识到，债务过于庞大，根本无法足额偿还。借款人失去了偿债能力，其抵押物失去价值，他们觉得受到债务的极大伤害，不想再借入更多债务！贷款人停止放贷，借款人停止借贷。整个经济体与个人一样都失去了信用度，那么应该怎样应对去杠杆化？
The problem is debt burdens are too high and they must come down. There are four ways this can happen. 1. people, businesses, and governments cut their spending. 2. debts are reduced through defaults and restructurings. 3. wealth is redistributed from the 'haves' to the 'have nots'. and finally, 4. the central bank prints new money. These 4 ways have happened in every deleveraging in modern history. Usually, spending is cut first. 问题在于，债务负担过重，必须减轻，为此可以采用四种办法。1.，个人、企业和政府削减支出。2.，通过债务违约和重组来减少债务。3.，财富再分配，将财富从富人转给穷人。4.，最后，央行发行更多货币。这四种办法被用于现代历史上的每一个去杠杆化过程。通常第一个措施是削减支出。
As we just saw, people, businesses, banks and even governments tighten their belts and cut their spending so that they can pay down their debt. 我们刚才看到，个人、企业、银行和政府都勒紧裤带，削减支出，从而能够减少债务。
This is often referred to as austerity. When borrowers stop taking on new debts, and start paying down old debts, you might expect the debt burden to decrease. But the opposite happens! Because spending is cut - and one man's spending is another man's income - it causes incomes to fall. They fall faster than debts are repaid and the debt burden actually gets worse. As we've seen, this cut in spending is deflationary and painful. 我们经常把这称为紧缩，当借款人不再借入新的债务，并开始减少旧债务的时候，你会以为债务负担会减轻，但情况正好相反！支出减少了，而一个人的支出是另一个人的收入，这就导致收入下降，收入下降速度超过还债的速度，因此债务负担实际上更为沉重，我们已经看到，这种削减支出的做法引起通货紧缩，令人痛苦。
Businesses are forced to cut costs... which means less jobs and higher unemployment. This leads to the next step: debts must be reduced! Many borrowers find themselves unable to repay their loans — and a borrower's debts are a lender's assets. When borrowers don't repay the bank, people get nervous that the bank won't be able to repay them so they rush to withdraw their money from the bank. Banks get squeezed and people, businesses and banks default on their debts. This severe economic contraction is a depression. 企业不得不削减成本，这意味着工作机会减少，失业率上升。这导致下一个步骤，即必须减少债务！很多借款人无法偿还贷款，而借款人的债务是贷款人的资产，如果借款人不偿还银行贷款，人们会担心银行无法返还其存款，因此纷纷从银行取出存款，银行受到挤兑，而个人、企业和银行出现债务违约，这种严重的经济收缩就是萧条。
A big part of a depression is people discovering much of what they thought was their wealth isn't really there. Let's go back to the bar. When you bought a beer and put it on a bar tab, you promised to repay the bartender. Your promise became an asset of the bartender. 萧条的一个主要特征是，人们发现，他们原来以为属于自己的财富中，有很大一部分实际上并不存在。我们再次以酒吧为例，当你用赊账的办法买一瓶啤酒时，是在承诺今后偿还酒吧的赊账，你的承诺成为酒吧的一项资产。
But if you break your promise - if you don't pay him back and essentially default on your bar tab - then the 'asset' he has isn't really worth anything. It has basically disappeared. Many lenders don't want their assets to disappear and agree to debt restructuring. Debt restructuring means lenders get paid back less or get paid back over a longer time frame or at a lower interest rate that was first agreed. Somehow a contract is broken in a way that reduces debt. Lenders would rather have a little of something than all of nothing. 但是，如果你不兑现承诺，不偿还酒吧的赊账，实际上是债务违约，那么酒吧的这项"资产"实际上一钱不值，它实际上是消失了。很多贷款人不希望自己的资产消失，同意债务重组。债务重组意味着贷款人得到的还款减少，或偿还期延长，或利率低于当初商定的水平，无论如何，合约被破坏，结果是债务减少，贷款人希望多少收回一些贷款，这强过血本无归。
Even though debt disappears, debt restructuring causes income and asset values to disappear faster, so the debt burden continues to gets worse. Like cutting spending, debt reduction is also painful and deflationary. All of this impacts the central government because lower incomes and less employment means the government collects fewer taxes. At the same time it needs to increase its spending because unemployment has risen. Many of the unemployed have inadequate savings and need financial support from the government. 债务重组让债务消失，但由于它导致收入和资产价值以更快的速度消失，债务负担继续日趋沉重。削减债务与减少支出一样，令人痛苦和导致通货紧缩。所有这些都对中央政府产生影响，因为收入降低和就业减少意味着政府的税收减少。与此同时，由于失业率上升，中央政府需要增加支出，很多失业者储蓄不足，需要政府的财务支助。
Additionally, governments create stimulus plans and increase their spending to make up for the decrease in the economy. Governments' budget deficits explode in a deleveraging because they spend more than they earn in taxes. This is what is happening when you hear about the budget deficit on the news. To fund their deficits, governments need to either raise taxes or borrow money. But with incomes falling and so many unemployed, who is the money going to come from? The rich. 此外，政府制定刺激计划和增加支出，以弥补经济活动的减少。在去杠杆化过程中，政府的预算赤字飙升，原因是政府的支出超过税收。你在新闻中所听到的预算赤字正是这种情况。政府必须加税或者举债，以填补赤字，但是，在收入下降和很多人失业的时候，应该向谁融资呢？富人。
Since governments need more money and since wealth is heavily concentrated in the hands of a small percentage of the people, governments naturally raise taxes on the wealthy which facilitates a redistribution of wealth in the economy - from the 'haves' to the 'have nots'. The 'have-nots,' who are suffering, begin to resent the wealthy 'haves.' The wealthy 'haves,' being squeezed by the weak economy, falling asset prices, higher taxes, begin to resent the 'have nots.' If the depression continues social disorder can break out. 由于政府需要更多的钱，而且大量财富集中在少数人的手中，政府自然而然地增加对富人的征税，以帮助经济中的财富再分配，把财富从富人那里转给穷人，正在困苦当中的穷人开始怨恨富人。承受经济疲弱、资产贬值和增税压力的富人开始怨恨穷人。如果萧条继续下去，就会爆发社会动荡。
Not only do tensions rise within countries, they can rise between countries - especially debtor and creditor countries. This situation can lead to political change that can sometimes be extreme. In the 1930s, this led to Hitler coming to power, war in Europe, and depression in the United States. Pressure to do something to end the depression increases. 不仅国家内部的紧张加剧，而且国家之间也会这样，债务国和债权国之间尤其如此。这种局势可以导致政治变革，有时是极端的变革。1930年代，这种局势导致希特勒掌权、欧洲爆发战争和美国的大萧条，要求采取行动来结束萧条的压力越来越大。
Remember, most of what people thought was money was actually credit. So, when credit disappears, people don't have enough money. People are desperate for money and you remember who can print money? The Central Bank can. 不要忘记，人们心目中的货币实际上大部分是信贷，因此，信贷一旦消失，人们的钱会不够花。人们迫切需要钱，而你一定记得，谁可以发行货币，中央银行可以。
Having already lowered its interest rates to nearly 0 - it's forced to print money. Unlike cutting spending, debt reduction, and wealth redistribution, printing money is inflationary and stimulative. Inevitably, the central bank prints new money — out of thin air — and uses it to buy financial assets and government bonds. It happened in the United States during the Great Depression and again in 2008, when the United States' central bank — the Federal Reserve — printed over two trillion dollars. 央行已经把利率降到接近零的水平，现在不得不发行更多货币，发行货币与削减支出、减少债务和财富再分配不同，会引起通货膨胀和刺激经济，中央银行不可避免地凭空发行更多货币，并使用这些货币来购买金融资产和政府债券，这种情况发生在美国大萧条期间，并于2008年再次爆发，当时美国的中央银行，即联邦储备委员会，增加发行了两万多亿美元。
Other central banks around the world that could, printed a lot of money, too. 世界各地能够这样做的其他央行也增发了很多货币。
By buying financial assets with this money, it helps drive up asset prices which makes people more creditworthy. However, this only helps those who own financial assets. You see, the central bank can print money but it can only buy financial assets. The Central Government, on the other hand, can buy goods and services and put money in the hands of the people but it can't print money. So, in order to stimulate the economy, the two must cooperate. 央行通过用这些货币购买金融资产，帮助推升了资产价格，从而提高了人们的信用。但是，这仅仅有助于那些拥有金融资产的人。你看央行可以发行货币，但是只能购买金融资产。而另一方面，中央政府可以购买商品和服务，可以向人民送钱，但是无法印钞票，因此，为了刺激经济，央行和政府必须合作。
By buying government bonds, the Central Bank essentially lends money to the government, allowing it to run a deficit and increase spending on goods and services through its stimulus programs and unemployment benefits. This increases people's income as well as the government's debt. However, it will lower the economy's total debt burden. 央行通过购买政府债券，其实是把钱借给政府，使其能够运行赤字预算，并通过刺激计划和失业救济金来增加购买商品和服务的支出，这增加了人们的收入，也增加了政府的债务，但是这个办法将降低经济中的总债务负担，这是一个风险很大的时刻。
This is a very risky time. Policy makers need to balance the four ways that debt burdens come down. The deflationary ways need to balance with the inflationary ways in order to maintain stability. If balanced correctly, there can be a Beautiful Deleveraging. You see, a deleveraging can be ugly or it can be beautiful. How can a deleveraging be beautiful? Even though a deleveraging is a difficult situation, handling a difficult situation in the best possible way is beautiful. 决策者需要平衡考虑降低债务负担的四种办法。必须平衡兼顾通货紧缩的办法和通货膨胀的办法，以便保持稳定。如果取成适当的平衡，就可以带来和谐的去杠杆化。所以说去杠杆化可以是痛苦的，也可以是和谐的，怎样才能实现和谐的去杠杆化？尽管去杠杆化是艰难的，但以尽可能好的办法来处理艰难的局势却是一件好事。
A lot more beautiful than the debt-fueled, unbalanced excesses of the leveraging phase. In a beautiful deleveraging, debts decline relative to income, real economic growth is positive, and inflation isn't a problem. It is achieved by having the right balance. The right balance requires a certain mix of cutting spending, reducing debt, transferring wealth and printing money so that economic and social stability can be maintained. People ask if printing money will raise inflation. It won't if it offsets falling credit. Remember, spending is what matters. 这比杠杆化阶段大量举债产生过度失衡现象要好得多，在和谐的去杠杆化过程中，债务收入比率下降，经济实际上是正增长，同时通货膨胀并不是一个问题，这是通过适当的平衡所取得的。为了取得适当的平衡，需要结合削减支出、减少债务，转移财富和发行货币的办法以保持经济和社会稳定。有人问，发行货币是否会加剧通货膨胀？如果增发的货币抵消贷款的降幅，就不会引发通货膨胀。
A dollar of spending paid for with money has the same effect on price as a dollar of spending paid for with credit. By printing money, the Central Bank can make up for the disappearance of credit with an increase in the amount of money. In order to turn things around, the Central Bank needs to not only pump up income growth but get the rate of income growth higher than the rate of interest on the accumulated debt. 不要忘记，重要的是支出，每一块钱的支出无论支付的是货币，还是信用，对价格的影响都是一样的。央行可以通过增加货币发行量来弥补消失的信贷。央行为了扭转局面，不仅需要推动收入的增长，而且需要让收入的增长率超过所积累债务的利率，这是什么意思？
So, what do I mean by that? Basically, income needs to grow faster than debt grows. For example: let's assume that a country going through a deleveraging has a debt-to- income ratio of 100%. 主要的意思是，收入一定要比债务增长得快，例如，我们假设有个国家正在经历去杠杆化。
That means that the amount of debt it has is the same as the amount of income the entire country makes in a year. Now think about the interest rate on that debt, let's say it is 2%. If debt is growing at 2% because of that interest rate and income is only growing at around only 1%, you will never reduce the debt burden. You need to print enough money to get the rate of income growth above the rate of interest. 其债务收入比率是100％，这意味着，债务量相当于整个国家一年的收入。假设这些债务的利率是2%，如果债务以2%的利率速度增加而收入的增长率仅有大约1%，那么债务负担永远不会减轻，必须发行更多货币，使收入增长率超过利率。
However, printing money can easily be abused because it's so easy to do and people prefer it to the alternatives. The key is to avoid printing too much money and causing unacceptably high inflation, the way Germany did during its deleveraging in the 1920's. If policymakers achieve the right balance, a deleveraging isn't so dramatic. Growth is slow but debt burdens go down. That's a beautiful deleveraging. 然而，发行货币太容易了，而且比其他办法受欢迎，因此，这个办法可能易于被滥用。关键是避免像1920年代去杠杆化的德国那样，发行过多的货币，从而导致恶性通货膨胀。如果决策层取得适当的平衡，去杠杆化过程就不会那样激烈。经济增长速度缓慢，但债务负担会下降，这就是和谐的去杠杆化。
When incomes begin to rise, borrowers begin to appear more creditworthy. And when borrowers appear more creditworthy, lenders begin to lend money again. Debt burdens finally begin to fall. Able to borrow money, people can spend more. Eventually, the economy begins to grow again, leading to the reflation phase of the long term debt cycle. Though the deleveraging process can be horrible if handled badly, if handled well, it will eventually fix the problem. 当收入上升的时候，借款人的信用度提高，借款人一旦显得更有信用，贷款人就会开始恢复贷款，债务负担终于开始下降，人们可以借到钱，就可以增加消费，经济终于开始恢复增长，长期债务周期从而进入通货再膨胀阶段。去杠杆化过程如果处理不当，会非常可怕，但如果处理得当，最终将解决问题。
It takes roughly a decade or more for debt burdens to fall and economic activity to get back to normal - hence the term 'lost decade.' 为了使债务负担下降和经济活动恢复正常，大约需要十年或更长的时间，因此有"失去的十年"这种说法。
Of course, the economy is a little more complicated than this template suggests. However, laying the short term debt cycle on top of the long term debt cycle and then laying both of them on top of the productivity growth line gives a reasonably good template for seeing where we've been, where we are now and where we are probably headed. So in summary, there are three rules of thumb that I'd like you to take away from this: First: Don't have debt rise faster than income, because your debt burdens will eventually crush you. 综上所述，经济当然要比这个模式复杂一点。然而，把短期债务周期、长期债务周期和生产率增长轨迹结合起来分析，我们会得到一个不错的模式，可以看清我们在过去和当前的处境，以及未来可能的发展方向。最后，我希望大家学到三条经验法则：第一，不要让债务的增长速度超过收入，因为债务负担最终将把你压垮。
Second: Don't have income rise faster than productivity, because you will eventually become uncompetitive. And third: Do all that you can to raise your productivity, because, in the long run, that's what matters most. This is simple advice for you and it's simple advice for policy makers. You might be surprised but most people — including most policy makers — don't pay enough attention to this. This template has worked for me and I hope that it'll work for you. Thank you. 第二，不要让收入的增长速度超过生产率，因为这最终将使你失去竞争力。第三，尽一切努力提高生产率，因为生产率在长期内起着最关键的作用。这就是我给大家，也是给决策者们的简单的建议。大家也许会吃惊地发现，大多数人，包括大多数决策者，都没有对此予以足够的重视。这个模式对我很有用，希望它也将对你们有用，谢谢大家。
